WHAT IS COMING NEXT?
I wrote before why I don’t think the Metaverse is going very far. It’s just too hard to use for the vast majority of users in the vast majority of circumstances, making it a really cool toy.
SO WHAT IS THE NEXT BIG THING?
Sadly, Google Glass will be back.
Or put more broadly, augmented reality will more likely be the next big push.
Augmented reality is the fancy version of Pokémon Go where you mix online and offline. You can look through glasses and see directions or search for a restaurant menu no one else can see.
WHY IS THIS GOING TO BLOW UP AND VR WILL REMAIN A TOY?
Because it’s the exact inverse of all of the problems VR has.
It doesn’t block our senses, so we can continue to use it in all of the places. And, depending on how small things get, in even more places! It’s much less likely to make people sick like virtual reality does, and even many screens do. If the blue light flickering improves, it will be easier to use.
We use the internet for three things: accomplishing tasks, gaining information, and entertainment.
These are actually the fundamentals of literacy in general. Those are the three things we’ve been doing with the written word for millennia.
Whereas it is impossibly cumbersome to get information or accomplish tasks (like banking and work) on VR, these things get more convenient in AR.
The big question is the third purpose, entertainment.
Some are super optimistic that we will be living in an immersive world in the near future. And some are… not.
There’s no arguing that screens look good. But that takes thousands of pixels. Can a little projector lens ever match that experience? It hasn’t yet. But then again, unlike with VR, it doesn’t have to. AR devices will most likely replace our smartphones, and watching something on those isn’t exactly earth-shattering. We’ll probably still have screens at home for the big stuff and happily stream on tiny lenses everywhere else.
Even on entertainment, I’m optimistic, because of the fact that you can potentially watch things anywhere.
Grocery store lines, class, driving. (I didn’t say this was a GOOD development.) But from the point of view of developers, there are still places you can’t use a smartphone. That goes away with something wearable. And then you can watch the big game on the big screen (while looking up stats as you watch like a ticker tape of looking impressive.)
What’s it going to take?
IT NEEDS TO NOT BE UGLY
This seems like a minor point, but humans go to great lengths to not be ugly. The beauty industry, diet industry, and cosmetic surgery industry rake in billions. Does it work? Should it matter? Is it good for the earth since so many products need petroleum to work? These are all different newsletters, but the importance of this should not be underestimated.
IT NEEDS NETWORK EFFECTS
Network effects are fancy words for monopoly, which is a fancy word for when you get big enough, it’s really inconvenient not to use whatever it is. Facebook is one not because it’s so great. People have complained about it since the beginning of its existence. But Facebook is one because of network effects. Everyone was on there, so you kind of had to be on there.
Augmented reality is going to have to go so viral life gets difficult if you don’t have it.
Again, I don’t necessarily think this is great for humanity. Our attention span is already shattered and the more people are online, the less happy they are with life in general. (Seriously, it’s like a straight line downward.)
But I also don’t think it’s going to be THAT much of a change. As I said, the fundamentals of what we do with our communication haven’t changed in millennia. Having glasses that do it will have some behavioral implications, but it won’t the fundamentals, which is why it will blow up the way VR never can. It can’t is trying to change the fundamentals.
What do you think the next new big thing is going to be?