The Internet has exploded in the last month with news of GenerativeAI taking over search, authorship, art, and various other industries. And how it has gone promptly off the rails. DOES IT LIVE UP TO THE DECADES OF HYPE? Speculative fiction has been taking on AI for YEARS. How good a job did the sci-fi author of the past in predicting how this is going, and where is it going next? And how did those doomsday stories affect the development of the thing we have now IT'S NOT INTELLIGENT OR SENTIENT This is all a little disingenuous because ChatGPT/Bing/etc are not artificial intelligence. They're certainly not sentient. The wild turkeys in my back yard are capable of greater intuitive leaps. My favorite explanation as to why is from The Verge about the mirror test. (When you put a mirror in front of an animal, do they know its them or do they think it's another animal?) TOTAL side note, the only species to PASS the mirror test, who know they're looking at themselves … [Read more...] about ChatBots are Here. Did Sci-Fi Get It Right?
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How to Make Music & Babies with Sunshine
Last week, I talked about how complexity is our true sticking point, not endless energy (from fusion or anywhere else). WHAT HAPPENS IF YOU DON'T HAVE ENOUGH COMPLEXITY? I'm struck by this question whenever I can fortify myself to dip into the news (see my article about outrage addiction). We talk about the energy crisis and oil and gas and fracking. Then we talk about climate change and CO2 emissions. Then we talk about the economy and inflation. Then we talk about a childcare crisis (at least in the US). And then we talk about our crumbling infrastructure and skyrocketing debt. And we do this like we are talking about different things. THEY ARE ALL THE SAME THING. How are they possibly the same thing? Let me explain, and in the process, hopefully, I can pull back the curtain and reveal the wizard behind our economy, and our governments, and our art, children, health, everything on earth, really. His name is Dan. But let's start at the beginning. DAN THE HYDROGEN … [Read more...] about How to Make Music & Babies with Sunshine
We’ve Had Enough Energy Since 1870. What Have We Done With it?
Last time, I imagined what a world with endless energy might be like in light of the new fusion breakthrough. This is one way an author can world-build a totally new civilization: you take one variable like the energy supply, change it, and see how it might affect everything from the morning coffee to marriage customs to the global economy. But lest you think our problems would be solved with enough energy (without the downsides of torching the world), I don't think it's going to be that simple... WE'VE HAD ENOUGH FOR OVER A CENTURY According to some sources, we've had enough energy to feed, house, clothe, and care for every human on earth since about 1870. Yes, it came with the downside of torching the world, and no, we haven't actually done that with our munificent bounty, but not enough energy is not our problem and hasn't been for a while. The problem and opportunity, and challenge, are what we build with that energy. The true constraint is taking that raw energy … [Read more...] about We’ve Had Enough Energy Since 1870. What Have We Done With it?
How to World Build a New Future with Endless Energy
A scientist made a tiny sun on earth a few days ago, and it took less energy than it produced. It's been all over the news with good reason. It's huge. Endless energy for everyone! Well, maybe. Someday. It's important to note that sustaining a tiny sun on earth may never be possible; though we said that about the energy! At the very least, this solution is decades and decades away. If it ever happens, what does it mean? Let's do a little world-building, shall we? One of the most fun and important steps of writing speculative fiction is, well, speculating. Change a variable in your made-up world and play out all of the implications on money, religion, gender, power all of it. Variable: We now get energy from fusion, not from ancient dead plants. What does a world like that look like? POWER INDUSTRY I feel like this would be the least changed, ironically, since it doesn't fundamentally change electricity. We already have the grid. We even have real estate for … [Read more...] about How to World Build a New Future with Endless Energy
How Bottlenecks and Slushies Help You Get Better Ideas
How do you make the best guess and get better ideas? I talked about last week how we're terrible at the first step in the scientific method: making a hypothesis. We never learn to do it. Here's a few ways to do it better. TELL YOURSELF THE STORY OF WHAT HAPPENED We all have stories about why things happen in the world and in our lives. They can be really awesome stories. Whizbang beginnings, tense conflict, explosive endings. Elaborate backstories. Fifteen sequels. Do they have anything to do with reality? Until we had the scientific method, we had no way to know. But now we do! The fancy word for this is a root cause analysis, digging through the story to try and find the story that most closely matches the reality of what happened. It is shocking how many big decisions people make their lives without the smallest bit of due diligence. They apply for graduate programs without ever talking to someone who's gotten that degree or has the job they think they want. Or … [Read more...] about How Bottlenecks and Slushies Help You Get Better Ideas